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Below
is a chart showing Brevard Countywide figures for List Price,
Sold Price, Number Listed and Number sold for all of 2005
through June of 2006 in Brevard.
These are homes reported
through MLS.
What happened
in 2005
As you can see the
median list price
shot up in first half of 2005, then kind of leveled off in the
second half of the year. While this was going on the
number of closings
dropped by close to 40% from July to December. This is
partly because of seasonal factors, but probably was a result of
crazy prices just driving buyers away.
Meanwhile, the
number of properties listed
coming onto the market increased by almost 50% from January '05
to September. It stayed at very high levels until the
Christmas season when inventories always drop because of family
obligations.
The median sale price
really went crazy in the first 2/3 of 2005. Speculation,
low interest rates and the effect of the always heightened
summer market, forced the median from the $220k level to around
$250k in August, 2005. The next few months are pretty
interesting to look at. If you look at the
green line (properties listed
that month) against
the light blue column
(median sale price)
you can see the law of supply and demand at work. When the
number of properties went up the median price went down.
2006, so far
As you can see, the
median asking price
took a huge jump after everybody and their brother put their
house on the market in January, 2006. The number of
new listings on the market
virtually doubled from
December, 2005 to January, 2006. The
median sale price dropped
again, and the
number of closings
fell to a very low figure, about half of the number of closings
just 5 months prior.
Since January, things
have been somewhat more stable, but there is a downward
trend for median list
price and an up
and down effect with
median sale price.
As I said elsewhere, I
believe that median
list price is an
inadequate yardstick for tracking Real Estate market conditions
because it really gauges buyer's budgets, more than their buying
power, or home values. The number of
new listings
has remained very high, with an average 1800-1900 new properties
being listed very month. This is an indicative of people
trying to cash out, speculators selling vacant homes, and
builders putting dozens of unsold inventory into the MLS.
All these factors are continuing to put serious downward
pressure on sale
prices. The
number of closings
has remained at a level that is about 30% below last year's, on
average.
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